Rich Cederberg's Albuquerque Real Estate Blog

Here's the latest video presentation of the Albuquerque Real Estate Report for June 2010. This report is provided by the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.

Here's a brief recap:

• Closed sales were up 11.40%
• Pending sales were down 21.86%
• Average sales price was down 1.11%
• Median sales price was down 2.58%
• Average days on the market was down 20%

No doubt at least some of the June closings were due to the first time home buyer tax credit, so we're likely to see a drop off in sales in July as the market returns to more normal conditions.

Remember that real estate is hyper-local. In other words, market conditions can vary not only from town to town but from neighborhood to neighborhood.  To fully understand the market conditions in your neighborhood and the effect the conditions may have on your home value contact me, Rich Cederberg, Albuquerque Realtor, for a free home valuation report.

If you're thinking of selling and you should read more about my plan to help you sell your Albuquerque House. 

Ready to buy your new home? Search residential real estate in Albuquerque NM or search MLS real estate in Rio Rancho 

Here's the latest video report from the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.

Here's the highlights (All figures are year-to-date comparisons)

• Closed sales in Albuquerque were up 4.44%
• Closed sales in Rio Rancho were up 37.25%
• Inventory is down 8.26% market wide
• Pending sales are up 46.98%
• Closed Sales were up 10.29%
• New listings were up 6.05%
• Average days on the market decreased 14.58% to 82 Days
• Average sales price was up 1.37%
• Median sales price was up 8.09%

February was a good month in Albuquerque Real Estate. No doubt the first time home buyer tax credit is having an effect.

I've had a good year selling Albuquerque Real Estate, much better than last year, but I've seen many others struggling to survive.

I've been hearing a lot lately about how the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers is having an effect, so I though I'd pull some numbers to see how much of an effect it has had.

Here is a comparison of Closed Sales in Albuquerque for 2008 and 2009:

Be careful, if you didn't read the legend you might have misunderstood. The red line is not 2009, it's 2008! Closed sales for most of this year have been down from last year.

However, if my personal sales history this year are any indication, the tax credit has had a big effect on the number of first time homebuyers who have bought this year.

What this means is disturbing. Without the tax credit and without the influx of first time homebuyes where would we be? The number of closed sales would be even lower. Yet people are talking about a housing recovery.

The last two months show an increase in closed sales, so this begs the question has it effected average sales price?

Here is a history of average sales price for this year:

The increased closings haven't led to an increase in average sales price. Average sales price data doesn't necessarily mean the value of your house has declined as significantly, since a higher than usual proportion of sales have been to first time homebuyers who are buying smaller houses, and this effects the numbers. In fact, real estate is local, to get an idea of your home's value you need to look at recent-very recent-sales in your neighborhood.

What this data says to me is that this is the next housing bubble. Sales are artificially propped up, and when the stimulus disappears this bubble will burst.

How long can our country afford to subsidise housing by offering the tax credit today? We're just doing more of the same- borrowing from our children's future. But if you have a smaller house and you want to sell over the next two or three years, I think you should do it now!

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Here is my Albuquerque Real Estate Report for October 2009. October was a good month for the Albuquerque Real Estate Market.

This graph illustrates that the number of closed sales in October 2009 (554) was a significant increase over the number of closed sales in October 2008 (429). This is a 29% increase. October 2009 sales were the strongest since 2006.

In fact, this is the fourth time in the last five months when the number of closed sales showed an increase over the same month in 2008.

The drastic increase in October closed sales is most likely due to the rush of first time homebuyers who were trying to close before November 30 so they can qualify for the $8,000 tax credit.

At $209,614 the average sales price stayed virtually the same as last month (Average sales price in September was $209,614),

but the average sales price is still off where it was in 2007 and 2008.

You can see by this graph that the majority of sales on October were in the $100,000 to $200,000 price range, the price range where typically the first time homebuyers are.

While there are some positive signs both in the number of closed sales and the average sales price, I think it is premature to suggest the housing market is recovering. I would say instead that the housing market in Albuqeruqe is reacting to the first time home buyer tax credit. We are likely to see increases next month as well.

Read my post This is the Effect of the Housing Stimulus?

Read my Northwest Albuquerque Real Estate Report for Area 120 (Ventana Ranch)

Read my Northwest Albuquerque Real Estate Report for Area 11 (Paradise Hills)

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Here's my Albuquerque Real Estate Report for September 2009.

There is some good news to report this month! Closed sales in the Greater Albuquerque Metropolitan area were up 9.44%.

Pending Sales were also up 31% in September which bodes well for October Closings.

Active Listings

The number of Detached homes for sale in September 2009 has decreased 17% since September 2008.

The number of Townhomes and Condos for sale has also decreased by 11%.

The decrease in inventory is a result of fewer new listings hitting the market combined with an increase in closed sales.

New Listings

The number of detached homes listed in September was down 8% year to date.

The number of attached homes listed in September was up 16% year to date.

New listings of single family homes continue their decline as sellers who have the option of moving or not are choosing to sit tight. The number of attached homes-townhomes amd condos-continues to increase.

Pending Sales

The number of pending sales increased 31%, a dramatic increase in the number of houses under contract but not yet closed.

This is the second straight month the market has experinced a large increase in pending sales.

Closed Sales

Closed sales were up 9% year to date!

This is the second increase we've seen in the number of closed sales in a year. July 2009 also showed an increase of 4%. August closings were down 3%.

I expect to see a continued increase in closings continuing into October and November as first time homebuyers take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit.

The Albuquerque Real Estate Market continues to be strong when compared to other cities in the U.S.

As the end to the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit nears expiration, I expect to see an increase in sales until December 1st. Expiration of the tax credit could have a dramatic effect on the market, and could lead to a very slow winter. There has been at least one bill introduced in congress to extend and possibly expand the first time homebuyer tax credit, but nothing is certain yet.

Albuquerque Real Estate Report for August 2009 

Albuquerque Real Estate Report for July 2009

Albuquerque Real Estate Report for June 2009

Here's Part 3 of my Albuquerque Real Estate Report: August Absorption Rate.

Since the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors started tracking the absorption rate I have found it is the best indicator of whether it's a buyer's market or a seller's market.

The absorption rate indicates how many months of inventory there is.

According to the National Association of Realtors a 6 month supply of inventory is  a balanced market. Less than 6 months of inventory is a sellers market, more than 6 months is considered a buyers market.

The August report indicates we are still in a buyer's market. A buyer's market means there are plenty of homes for buyers to choose from and sellers who really need to sell will probably have to take less for their home.

We are not likely to see the Albuquerque Real Estate Market shift from a buyer's market to a seller's market for some time.

Here's Part 2 of my Albuquerque Real Estate Report: August Supply-Demand Ratio.

Since the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors started tracking the supply-demand ratio I have found it's the best stat that reflects how real estate feels to me "on the street" as a listing agent.

The ratio represents the number of homes that were available for each pending sale.

In august there were 5,299 active listings and 986 pending sales. That means for every house that went nto pending status there were 5.37 houses on the market.

This graph illustrates how decreasing inventory and increasing sales have improved the chances of selling in todays market.

This is only one way to gauge the strength of the market from a sellers standpoint. Just as important is the average sales price and the absorption rate. I'll examine the absorption rate in an upcoming post.

Here's my Albuquerque Real Estate Report for August 2009.

Total Active Listings

The number of Detached homes for sale in August 2009 has decreased 16.96% since since August 2008.

The number of Townhomes and Condos for sale has also decreased by 11.84%.

The decrease in inventory is a result of fewer new listings hitting the market, not by an increase in closed sales.

New Listings

The number of detached homes listed in August was down 17.57% year to date.

The number of attached homes listed in August was up 5.10% year to date.

New listings of single family homes continue their decline as sellers who have the option of moving or not are choosing to sit tight.

 Pending Sales

The number of pending sales increased 36.38%, a dramatic increase in the number of houses under contract but not yet closed.

An increase in Pending sales does not necessarily result in a increase in closed sales the following month, but such a large increase is encouraging. It will be interesting to see September closed data.

 Closed Sales

Closed sales were down 3% year to date.

Last month was the first increase we've seen in the number of closed sales in a year. It's surprising that the number if August closings is down.

I expect to see an increase in September closings continuing into October and November as the first time homebuyer tax credit gets ready to expire.

 Average Sales Price

The average sales price has decreased 11.32% from August of 2009 to August of 2008.

The average sales price rose slightly in May, June and July, which is typical of the summer months.

 Median Sales Price

The median sales price has decreased only 4.62% from August of 2009 to August of 2008.

The Albuquerque Real Estate Market continues to be strong when compared to other cities in the U.S.

As the end to the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit nears expiration, I expect to see an increase in sales until December 1st. Expiration of the tax credit could have a dramatic effect on the market, and could lead to a very slow winter. There have been bills introduced in congress to extend and possibly expand the first time homebuyer tax credit, but nothing is certain yet. 

Albuquerque Real Estate Report for July 2009

Albuquerque Real Estate Report for June 2009

The July 2009 Albuquerque Real Estate Market Summary has been published by the Albuquerque Board of Realtors. At long last there is some positive news to report! Here is my take on th enumbers and what they mean to Albuquerque area buyers and sellers.

Closed Sales

Closed sales were up 4% from July 2009 with 735 closed sales versus 704 closed sales in July 2008. This is the first time in many months that we have seen an increase in year-to-date monthly sales activity.

Pending Sales

Pending sales were flat, with 875 sales in pending status in 2009 versus 871 sales in 2008. I'm not sure how to interpret those numbers yet. More to come in next month's report.

Active Listings

There remains to be good news for sellers. There was a 14% decrease in new listings YTD. The decreased number in listings combined with strong closed sales has continued to create a low supply-demand ratio. I think the supply-demand ratio is the best indicator of  the "pulse" of real estate sales on the street. The lower the ratio of homes for sale to pending sales the easier it is to sell.

Average Sales Price

Average sales price is down 7% from $240,896 in July 2008 to $224,271 in July 2009. Average sales price numbers are influenced greatly by the number of home sales in the higher end market. The higher end market continues to be down with only 7 sales above $750,000 versus 14 sales above $750,000 in 2008.

Median Sales Price

The Median home sales price is down 6%.

General Notes on Albuquerque Real Estate

Most of my sales activity continues to be with first-time home buyers who are anxious to cash in on the $8,000 tax credit. As these buyers are closing on houses under $150,000, I am seeing the sellers of those homes move up in the market and purchase in the $200,000-$250,000 price range. So the tax credit seems to be stimulating the market.

Signs calls and internet inquiries have continued to increase as first-time home buyers are coming to the realization that time is running out on the tax incentive program. Nice houses in the lower price range are becoming more difficult to find. I have heard of several multiple offer scenarios.

First-time homebuyers need to get serious and locate the home they want to buy.

Owners of smaller, less expensive homes should give serious consideration to selling now if their home is in very good condition.

Forecast

The number of home sales will be strong for the next three months, however, prices will continue a slight decline as more foreclosures and short sales hit the market. An exception could be in the $150,000 and under market where non-foreclosure and short sale inventory is down and prices have shown signs of price stabilization.

The June numbers are in from the Albuquerque board of Realtors.

Closed Sales

Closed sales were up 15% from May 2009 with 649 closed sales versus 566 closed sales in May. However, in June 2008 there were 738 closed sales, so there was a 12% decrease in sales YTD. The increase in sales from May to June reflects the seasonal nature of real estate sales, not an upturn in the market as suggested by some. 

Pending Sales

Pending sales were up YTD, with 933 sales in pending status in 2009 versus 857 sales in 2008. This is potentially positive news, but it's too early to say if the stats indicate upward movement or not. I know personally my lenders have requested more time to close transactions due to a backlog with appraisers, especially FHA appraisals. Perhaps we are just seeing a logjam here. Time will tell.

Active Listings

There is good news for sellers here. There was a 17% decrease in new listings YTD. The decreased number is listings combined with somewhat strong closed sales has created the best supply-demand ratio in over a year. I think the supply-demand ratio is the best indicator of of the "pulse" of real estate sales on the street. The lower the ratio of homes for sale to pending sales the easier it is to sell.

Average Sales Price

Average sales price is down 11% from $248,375 to $222,183.

Median Sales Price

Median sales price is down 9%.

General Notes on Albuquerque Real Estate

Most of my sales activity continues to be with first-time home buyers who are anxious to cash in on the $8,000 tax credit. As these buyers are closing on houses under $150,000, I am seeing the sellers of those homes move up in the market and purchase in the $200,000-$250,000 price range. So the tax credit seems to be stimulating the market.

Signs calls and internet inquiries are up, but the buyers are looking for super deals. Houses that are not perfect or in the very best of locations are still lingering on the market. Prequalifying for a loan continues to be more difficult than it used to be. I have not personally talked with many sellers doing successful loan modification programs.